Just a geek who lives in Olympia, WA with my wife, son, and animals. In my free time I play board games, write fiction, and make stuff.
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The pivot

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It's my 61st birthday this weekend and I have to say, I never expected to get to be this old—or this weirded-out by the world I'm living in, which increasingly resembles the backstory from a dystopian 1970s SF novel in which two-fisted billionaires colonize space in order to get away from the degenerate second-hander rabble downstairs who want to survive their John W. Campbell-allocated banquet of natural disasters. (Here's looking at you, Ben Bova.)

Notwithstanding the world being on fire, an ongoing global pandemic vascular disease that is being systematically ignored by governments, Nazis popping out of the woodwork everywhere, actual no-shit fractional trillionaires trying to colonize space in order to secede from the rest of the human species, an ongoing European war that keeps threatening to drag NATO into conflict with the rotting zombie core of the former USSR, and an impending bubble collapse that's going to make 2000 and 2008 look like storms in a teacup ...

I'm calling this the pivotal year of our times, just as 1968 was the pivotal year of the post-1945 system, for a number of reasons.

It's pretty clear now that a lot of the unrest we're seeing—and the insecurity-induced radicalization—is due to an unprecedented civilizational energy transition that looks to be more or less irreversible at this point.

Until approximately 1750, humanity's energy budget was constrained by the available sources: muscle power, wind power (via sails and windmills), some water power (via water wheels), and only heat from burning wood and coal (and a little whale oil for lighting).

During the 19th century we learned to use combustion engines to provide motive power for both stationary machines and propulsion. This included powering forced ventilation for blast furnaces and other industrial processes, and pumps for water and other working fluids. We learned to reform gas from coal for municipal lighting ("town gas") and, later, to power dynamos for municipal electricity generation. Late in the 19th century we began to switch from coal (cumbersome, bulky, contained non-combustible inclusions) to burning fractionated oil for processes that demanded higher energy densities. And that's where we stuck for most of the long 20th century.

During the 20th century, the difficulty of supporting long-range military operations led to a switch from coal to oil—the pivotal event was the ultimately-disastrous voyage of the Russian Baltic fleet to the Sea of Japan in 1906, during the Russo-Japanese war. From the 1890s onwards Russia had been expanding into Siberia and then encroaching on the edges of the rapidly-weakening Chinese empire. This brought Russia into direct conflict with Japan over Korea (Japan, too, had imperial ambitions), leading to the outbreak of war in 1905—when Japan wiped out the Russian far-eastern fleet in a surprise attack. (Pearl Harbor in 1941 was not that surprising to anyone familiar with Japanese military history!) So the Russian navy sent Admiral Zinovy Rozhestvensky, commander of the Baltic Fleet, to the far east with the hastily-renamed Second Pacific Squadron, whereupon they were sunk at the Battle of Tsushima.

Rozhestvensky had sailed his fleet over 18,000 nautical miles (33,000 km) from the Baltic Sea, taking seven months and refueling numerous times at sea with coal (around a quarter of a million tons of it!) because he'd ticked off the British and most ports were closed to him. To the admiralties watching from around the world, the message was glaringly obvious—coal was a logistical pain in the arse—and oil far preferable for refueling battleships, submarines, and land vehicles far from home. (HMS Dreadnought, the first turbine-powered all-big-gun battleship, launched in 1905, was a transitional stage that still relied on coal but carried a large quantity of fuel oil to spray on the coal to increase its burn rate: later in the decade, the RN moved to oil-only fueled warships.)

Spot the reason why the British Empire got heavily involved in Iran, with geopolitical consequences that are still playing out to this day! (The USA inherited large chunks of the British empire in the wake of the second world war: the dysfunctional politics of oil are in large part the legacy of applying an imperial resource extraction model to an energy source.)

Anyway. The 20th century left us with three obvious problems: automobile driven suburban sprawl and transport infrastructure, violent dissatisfaction among the people of colonized oil-producing nations, and a massive burp of carbon dioxide emissions that is destabilizing our climate.

Photovoltaic cells go back to 1839, but until the 21st century they remained a solution in search of very specific problems: they were heavy, produced relatively little power, and degraded over time if left exposed to the sun. Early PV cells were mainly used to provide power to expensive devices in inaccessible locations, such as aboard satellites and space probes: it cost $96 per watt for a solar module in the mid-1970s. But we've been on an exponential decreasing cost curve since then, reaching $0.62/watt by the end of 2012, and it's still on-going.

China is currently embarked on a dash for solar power which really demands the adjective "science-fictional", having installed 198GW of cells between January and May, with 93GW coming online in May alone: China set goals for reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2030 in 2019 and met their 2030 goal in 2024, so fast is their transition going. They've also acquired a near-monopoly on the export of PV panels because this roll-out is happening on the back of massive thin-film manufacturing capacity.

The EU also hit a landmark in 2025, with more than 50% of its electricity coming from renewables by late summer. It was going to happen sooner or later, but Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022 sped everything up: Europe had been relying on Russian exports of natural gas via the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines, but Russia—which is primarily a natural resource extraction economy—suddenly turned out to be an actively hostile neighbour. (Secondary lesson of this war: nations run by a dictator are subject to erratic foreign policy turns—nobody mention Donald Trump, okay?) Nobody west of Ukraine wanted to be vulnerable to energy price warfare as a prelude to actual fighting, and PV cells are now so cheap that it's cheaper to install them than it is to continue mining coal to feed into existing coal-fired power stations.

This has not gone unnoticed by the fossil fuel industry, which is collectively shitting itself. After a couple of centuries of prospecting we know pretty much where all the oil, coal, and gas reserves are buried in the ground. (Another hint about Ukraine: Ukraine is sitting on top of over 670 billion cubic metres of natural gas: to the dictator of a neighbouring resource-extraction economy this must have been quite a draw.) The constant propaganda and astroturfed campaigns advocating against belief in climate change must be viewed in this light: by 2040 at the latest, those coal, gas, and oil land rights must be regarded as stranded assets that can't be monetized, and the land rights probably have a book value measured in trillions of dollars.

China is also banking on the global shift to transport using EVs. High speed rail is almost always electrified (not having to ship an enormous mass of heavy fuel around helps), electric cars are now more convenient than internal combustion ones to people who live in dense population areas, and e-bikes don't need advocacy any more (although roads and infrastructure friendly to non-motorists—pedestrians and public transport as well as cyclists—is another matter).

Some forms of transport can't obviously be electrified. High capacity/long range aviation is one—airliners get lighter as they fly because they're burning off fuel. A hypothetical battery powered airliner can't get lighter in flight: it's stuck with the dead weight of depleted cells. (There are some niches for battery powered aircraft, including short range/low payload stuff, air taxis, and STOVL, but they're not going to replace the big Airbus and Boeing fleets any time soon.)

Some forms of transport will become obsolescent in the wake of a switch to EVs. About half the fossil fuel powered commercial shipping in use today is used to move fossil fuels around. We're going to be using crude oil for the foreseeable future, as feedstock for the chemical and plastics industries, but they account for a tiny fraction of the oil we burn for transport, including shipping. (Plastic recycling is over-hyped but might eventually get us out of this dependency—if we ever get it to work efficiently.)

So we're going through an energy transition period unlike anything since the 1830s or 1920s and it's having some non-obvious but very important political consequences, from bribery and corruption all the way up to open warfare.

The geopolitics of the post-oil age is going to be interestingly different.

I was wrong repeatedly in the past decade when I speculated that you can't ship renewable electricity around like gasoline, and that it would mostly be tropical/equatorial nations who benefited from it. When Germany is installing rooftop solar effectively enough to displace coal generation, that's a sign that PV panels have become implausibly cheap. We have cars and trucks with reasonably long ranges, and fast-charger systems that can take a car from 20% to 80% battery capacity in a quarter of an hour. If you can do that to a car or a truck you can probably do it to a tank or an infantry fighting vehicle, insofar as they remain relevant. We can do battery-to-battery recharging (anyone with a USB power bank for their mobile phone already knows this) and in any case the whole future of warfare (or geopolitics by other means) is up in the air right now—quite literally, with the lightning-fast evolution of drone warfare over the past three years.

The real difference is likely to be that energy production is widely distributed rather than concentrated in resource extraction economies and power stations. It turns out that PV panels are a great way of making use of agriculturally useless land, and also coexist well with some agricultural practices. Livestock likes shade and shelter (especially in hot weather) so PV panels on raised stands or fences can work well with sheep or cattle, and mixed-crop agriculture where low-growing plants are sheltered from direct sunlight by taller crops can also work with PV panels instead of the higher-growing plants. You can even in principle use the power from the farm PV panels to drive equipment in greenhouses: carbon dioxide concentrators, humidifiers, heat pumps to prevent overheating/freezing, drainage pumps, and grow lamps to drive the light-dependent reactions in photosynthesis.

All of which we're really going to need because we've passed the threshold for +1.5 °C climate change, which means an increasing number of days per year when things get too hot for photosynthesis under regular conditions. There are three main pathways for photosynthesis, but none of them deal really well with high temperatures, although some adaptation is possible. Active cooling is probably impractical in open field agriculture, but in intensive indoor farming it might be an option. And then there's the parallel work on improving how photosynthesis works: an alternative pathway to the Calvin cycle is possible and the enzymes to make it work have been engineered into Arabidopsis, with promising results.

In addition to the too-many-hot-days problem, climate change means fluctuations in weather: too much wind, too much rain—or too little of both—at short notice, which can be physically devastating for crops. Our existing staple crops require a stable, predictable climate. If we lose that, we're going to have crop failures and famines by and by, where it's not already happening. The UK has experienced three of its worst harvests in the past century in this decade (and this decade is only half over). As long as we have global supply chains and bulk shipping we can shuffle food around the globe to cover localized shortfalls, but if we lose stable agriculture globally for any length of time then we are all going to die: our economic system has shifted to just-in-time over the past fifty years, and while it's great for efficiency, efficiency is the reciprocal of resilience. We don't have the reserves we would need to survive the coming turbulence by traditional means.

This, in part, explains the polycrisis: nobody can fix what's wrong using existing tools. Consequently many people think that what's going wrong can't be fixed. The existing wealthy elites (who have only grown increasingly wealthy over the past half century) derive their status and lifestyle from the perpetuation of the pre-existing system. But as economist Herbert Stein observed (of an economic process) in 1985, "if it can't go on forever it will stop". The fossil fuel energy economy is stopping right now—we've probably already passed peak oil and probably peak carbon: the trend is now inexorably downwards, either voluntarily into a net-zero/renewables future, or involuntarily into catastrophe. And the involuntary option is easier for the incumbents to deal with, both in terms of workload (do nothing, right up until we hit the buffers) and emotionally (it requires no sacrifice of comfort, of status, or of relative position). Clever oligarchs would have gotten ahead of the curve and invested heavily in renewables but the evidence of our eyes (and the supremacy of Chinese PV manufacturers in the global market) says that they're not that smart.

The traditional ruling hierarchy in the west had a major shake-up in 1914-19 (understatement: most of the monarchies collapsed) in the wake of the convulsion of the first world war. The elites tried to regain a degree of control, but largely failed due to the unstable conditions produced by the great depression and then the second world war (itself an emergent side-effect of fascist regimes' attempts to impose imperial colonial policies on their immediate neighbours, rather than keeping the jackboots and whips at a comfortable remove). Reconstruction after WW2 and a general post-depression consensus that emerged around accepting the lesser evil of social democracy as a viable prophylactic to the devil of communism kept the oligarchs down for another couple of decades, but actually-existing capitalism in the west stopped being about wealth creation (if it ever had been) some time in the 1960s, and switched gear to wealth concentration (the "he who dies with the most toys, wins" model of life). By the end of the 1970s, with the rise of Thatcherism and Reaganomics, the traditional wealthy elites began to reassert control, citing the spurious intellectual masturbation of neoliberal economics as justification for greed and repression.

But neoliberalism was repurposed within a couple of decades as a stalking-horse for asset-stripping, in which the state was hollowed out and its functions outsourced to the private sector—to organizations owned by the existing elites, which turned the public purse into a source of private profit. And we're now a couple of generations into this process, and our current rulers don't remember a time when things were different. So they have no idea how to adapt to a changing world.

Cory Doctorow has named the prevailing model of capitalist exploitation enshittification. We no longer buy goods, we buy services (streaming video instead of owning DVDs or tapes, web services instead of owning software, renting instead of buying), and having been captured by the platforms we rent from, we are then subject to rent extraction: the service quality is degraded, the price is jacked up, and there's nowhere to go because the big platforms have driven their rivals into bankruptcy or irrelevance:

It's a three stage process: First, platforms are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.

This model of doing business (badly) is a natural consequence of the bigger framework of neoliberalism, under which a corporation's directors overriding duty is to maximize shareholder value in the current quarter, with no heed to the second and subsequent quarters hence: the future is irrelevant, feed me shouts the Audrey II of shareholder activism. Business logic has no room for the broader goals of maintaining a sustainable biosphere, or even a sustainable economy. And so the agents of business-as-usual, or Crapitalism as I call it, are at best trapped in an Abilene paradox in which they assume everyone else around them wants to keep the current system going, or they actually are as disconnected from reality as Peter Thiel (who apparently believes Greta Thunberg is the AntiChrist.)

if it can't go on forever it will stop

What we're seeing right now is the fossil fuel energy economy stopping. We need it to stop; if it doesn't stop, we're all going to starve to death within a generation or so. It's already leading to resource wars, famines, political upheaval, and insecurity (and when people feel insecure, they rally to demagogues who promise them easy fixes: hence the outbreaks of fascism). The ultra-rich don't want it to stop because they can't conceive of a future in which it stops and they retain their supremacy. (Also, they're children of privilege and most of them are not terribly bright, much less imaginative—as witness how easily they're robbed blind by grifters like Bernie Madoff, Sam Bankman Fried, and arguably Sam Altman). Those of them whose wealth is based in ownership of fossil fuel assets still in the ground have good reason to be scared: these are very nearly stranded assets already, and we're heading for a future in which electricity is almost too cheap to meter.

All of this is without tackling the other elephant in the room, which is the end of Moore's Law. Moore's Law has been on its death bed for over a decade now. We're seeing only limited improvements in computing and storage performance, mainly from parallelism. Aside from a very few tech bubbles which soak up all available processing power, belch, and ask for more, the all you can eat buffet for tech investors is over. (And those bubbles are only continuing as long as scientifically naive investors keep throwing more money at them.)

The engine that powered the tech venture capital culture (and the private equity system battening on it) is sputtering and dying. Massive AI data centres won't keep the coal mines running or the nuclear reactors building out (it's one of those goddamn bubbles: to the limited extent that LLMs are useful, we'll inevitably see a shift towards using pre-trained models running on local hardware). They're the 2025 equivalent of 2020's Bored Ape NFTs (remember those?). The forecast boom in small modular nuclear reactors is going to fizzle in the face of massive build-out of distributed, wildly cheap photovoltaic power plus battery backup. Quantum computing isn't going to save the tech sector, and that's the "next big thing" the bubble-hypemongers have been saving for later for the past two decades. (Get back to me when you've got hardware that can factor an integer greater than 31.)

If we can just get through the rest of this decade without widespread agricultural collapses, a nuclear war, a global fascist international dictatorship taking hold, and a complete collapse of the international financial system caused by black gold suddenly turning out to be worthless, we might be pretty well set to handle the challenges of the 2030s.

But this year, 2025, is the pivot. This can't go on. So it's going to stop. And then—

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Wild Cats, Bored Cats, Sleepy Cats

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a graphite drawing of a cat in thick strokes

a graphite drawing of a cat in thick strokes

a graphite drawing of a cat in thick strokes

a graphite drawing of a cat in thick strokes

The style of ShouXin’s drawings is a perfect match for their subject matter — cats are simultaneously wild and carefully composed. (via colossal)

Tags: art · cats · ShouXin

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jhamill
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Fantastic
California

Green Lights More Often: The Secret 2018 Study of Sydney’s Traffic Signals - Jake Coppinger

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On the 7th of January 2018, Transport for NSW (TfNSW) pulled off something extraordinary – and I personally paid $441 to obtain the previously secret reports documenting it.

Overnight, traffic signals across the core of Sydney’s CBD were reprogrammed to show a green light more frequently – at least every 90 seconds. This reduced the maximum wait time by a full 20 seconds (from the previous maximum cycle time of 110 seconds) for every pedestrian, cyclist and motorist.

TfNSW studied traffic patterns for 3 months afterwards in unpublished daily qualitative observation reports, sent out traffic survey experts to walk laps of streets with a stopwatch, and record any bus delays…and those results were unbelievably positive for everybody – people walking, buses and vehicles:

  • People walking spent up to 40% less time waiting at traffic lights on average on some streets, and over 18% improvement on every measured street[1]: 1  (92% of trips within the Sydney city centre are on foot[2])
  • “Buses continued to operate normally”[3][4], on most streets they ran faster, and on one street they arrived an average of 3.6 minutes earlier [5][4]: 5  – so much faster bus drivers were unable to drive slow enough to meet the old timetable! (only one of the streets analysed had slower buses, with <50s avg. delay behind timetable)
  • Within only 8 weeks[4]: 4 , car traffic had apparently evaporated (traffic evaporation[6] is the opposite of induced demand, as per the Law of Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion (1962)[7][8]), the “Network worked well”[4]: 4  and “General traffic vehicle travel times were operating as normal with the exception of a couple locations in the CBD”[3].
  • “The project has been a success”[4].

With such impressive results, why doesn’t TfNSW do it again? Why not for the whole inner city, as Clover Moore formally requested almost 7 years ago?[9]

The number of people being killed while walking is increasing. As of 2025-09-23, pedestrian deaths are rising 28% year on year in NSW[10] (rising four times faster than car drivers) and more people walking are killed in the City of Sydney than any other LGA in NSW.[11]: 6 

Despite clear evidence that shorter signal cycles reduce wait times and improve safety for pedestrians[12][13][14][15], and in their own words “Shorter wait times…could potentially reduce the risk of jaywalking and pedestrian crashes”[16][17], TfNSW has not expanded this successful program beyond the CBD in the City of Sydney. Along with the desperately needed reduction of urban state road speed limits to 40km/h[11]: 12 , why hasn’t TfNSW doubled down on this proven solution? Why isn’t TfNSW writing papers on pedestrian wait-time reduction, similar to the recent award winning study from Manchester by Josef Whitfield?[18]

Walkable and bikeable streets are good for business.[19] Improved access brings agglomeration productivity benefits: improving pedestrian connectivity and “prioritising pedestrian crossings” is action 4D of the Tech Central Economic Strategy (released this month).[20]

Improving life between buildings with walkable streets make dense neighbourhoods not just possible, but desirable. Our streets and public spaces determine whether dense development enhances or diminishes quality of life. Legacy traffic modelling recommended against pedestrianising George Street[21]: 34 , now perhaps Sydney’s greatest street.[22]

TfNSW’s Road User Space Allocation Policy states that temporal allocation should consider pedestrians before cars (and all other modes). This policy is mandatory[23] though only sometimes followed.[21] The Roads Act 1993 Review[24] should formalise the road user hierarchy into the objects and intent of the Act.[25][26][27][28][29] TfNSW could highlight the results of this project to show their international customers that the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS) system is able to be “policy responsive” (per their sales materials[30]).

We don’t need to wait another quarter-century to stop killing people walking on local streets – Oslo[31] (which typically uses even shorter cycle times of ~50 seconds[32]) and Helsinki[33] have already achieved zero pedestrian fatalities in one year, likely as a result of 30km/h urban speed limits, fewer cars, and shorter signal cycle times. If we want a different outcome we have to do something different – and these documents uncover just how great the change is.

The GIPA[a] 25T-1151 material suggests prioritising pedestrians can deliver measurable economic and safety benefits at minimal cost – and who doesn’t want to wait less at traffic lights?

Page 259 of the Statistical Reports

Image: Page 5 of the presentation

Fatalities 12-month moving total - 2020 to date

Image: NSW Fatalities 12-month moving total – 2020 to date (2025-09-23)

Overview

This analysis is a personal side-project. I initiated the information request on February 3rd 2025[34] and proceeded with the release at a personal cost of $441.

I am not a traffic engineer! If you have corrections, suggestions or constructive criticism I would greatly appreciate it. Feel free to drop a comment below or email me privately at [email protected]. I have released all documents and code openly for further analysis, reproduction, and research (OCR / perceived congestion git repo, Observable visualisation notebook).

Live in Australia and want to improve your local streets? Run out of Not Just Bikes episodes to watch and want to learn how change actually happens? Join Better Streets! Drop me an email – I’ll invite you to the Slack (where the magic happens) and point you to the communities and individuals in your city/suburb to learn from and collaborate with. See their views, recommendations (and 114 business and community organisation partners so far) at https://www.betterstreets.org.au/coalition.

I worked for the past 5 years as a full-stack software engineer at Atlassian. I’m currently working on a commercial project with an organisation I’m very excited about – I’m looking forward to showcasing that work in the coming months.

I’m planning to build more commercial software in the walking / cycling / planning space. I’m pretty passionate about these fields if you didn’t gather from this blog post! See a summary of side projects I’ve worked on in the past ~5 years here.

Get in touch at [email protected] or on Mastodon at @[email protected].

Maps

This map is dated 2017-11-29.[35]

Map of Original CBD Signal Phasing Times

Map of Revised CBD Signal Phasing Times

I previously published this map (CCO_604/005/05APR18) as a vector PDF[36] in “Shining a Light on the Traffic Signals of Sydney” (2023).[37]

Map of Revised CBD Signal Phasing Times

Analysis 1: How much shorter could traffic signals run through their cycles in Sydney’s CBD?

One of the documents in GIPA[a] 25T-1151 is an audit of traffic signal cycle times dated November 2017.[38] This document includes a Min. time column, which appears to be the minimum possible cycle time for each signal.

Minimum cycle times specify how low cycle times can be while ensuring a safe amount of time is provided to each phase. By design, SCATS increases signal cycle time to accommodate detected vehicle volumes, until the maximum cycle time is reached. The maximum cycle time is an arbitrary ceiling set in the SCATS software to limit worst case outcomes for pedestrians and cyclists. Traffic cycle times are a numerical representation of the prioritisation of different modes of transport.

A claim advocates often hear is that traffic signal cycle times are already as low as they can be. However, this document suggests otherwise.

This analysis of TfNSW data suggests over 85% of signal sites have minimum cycle times less than sixty seconds, significantly lower than the current maximum cycle time of 90 seconds (excluding sites definitely changed since 2017). In other words, most signals in the Sydney CBD could show a green light more often. It suggests TfNSW could further reduce cycle times of signals in the Sydney CBD. There is no public data showing otherwise. TfNSW has refused[39] to publish timing data on signals for anywhere in NSW – “As previously advised, Transport for NSW does not publish the SCATS Signal Phasing data you requested and currently has no plans to make this information publicly available.” (Howard Collins, Coordinator-General TfNSW, 2025-08-25[40]).

All data in this section is from 7 years ago, but it’s more than the public has ever seen before. While specific charts imply which signals have likely changed or remain the same, the only way to understand how the current situation has changed is open data on traffic signals timing in NSW.

An early draft of this analysis was presented at the 2025 TransportCamp Sydney one-day ‘unconference’[41]. Thanks to all those who have provided feedback!

I was told at this conference by a TfNSW employee that one sensitivity of open signal data was the perceived risk of private bus operators initiating legal action in the case of missed on time running targets. If a valid risk, this is certainly a perverse outcome of private bus operator contracts. I hope the (positive) results showcasing that buses ran earlier addresses this concern. In any case, from first principles – if buses are provided with a dedicated lane and there are no split failures at signals for the bus lane (i.e. as long as there isn’t a line of 10 buses), more frequent green lights should benefit buses just like pedestrians. If a bus route often runs late, buses should be provided with a dedicated lane. Such changes only require paint and software tweaks, not concrete.

Methodology

Data meaning

Page 259 of the Statistical Reports Above is a screenshot of a subset of the source data.[38] : 259 

The minimum cycle time is not filled for all rows. These are likely outside the study area. We can’t calculate minimum cycle times by summing phase times if some are missing, however when all phase times are present, their sum equals the minimum cycle time specified. The value under “Available green time at” … “90” … “Cycle”, when subtracted from 90, equals the minimum cycle time specified (though note when intersections are double cycled).

Without intersection diagrams, it’s impossible to know which pedestrian phases run in parallel, and with which vehicle phases.. Note Victoria[42] and WA[43] publish such diagrams openly for every single signal, and Western Australian (WA) publishes actual (as run) phase timing for throughout the day in monthly GeoParquet data dumps[44], so the resultant cycle time (including min & max) can be estimated with a high degree of accuracy.

The tabular data in the GIPA result was not machine readable and not easily copied/exported into a structured spreadsheet for analysis. I have generated structured JSON data from this document [38]: 258–269  using LLM-powered OCR against a TypeScript interface. I have published the the code (and output) in a git repo – it may contain errors. PRs much appreciated!

Note there are some apparently incorrect dates in the daily report titles. On some documents it appears the day was updated but the month was not. See the README.md for details on this.

All JavaScript calculations for these charts are open, reproducible, and editable on the Observable notebook for your review or further analysis.[45]

See the appendix for Overpass Turbo queries utilised for this analysis.

Interpreted data

Results / graphs

This analysis suggests over 85% of signal sites have minimum cycle times less than sixty seconds, significantly lower than the current maximum cycle time of 90 seconds (excluding sites definitely changed since 2017).

This may have changed since, perhaps due to more protected phases which may increase minimum cycle times – but there is no open data, so it is impossible for the public to confirm.

Minimum cycle times for traffic signals in the Sydney CBD

Note: as discussed above, not all of these crossings are still present (see further charts guessing at which ones are no longer present).

Histogram of minimum signal cycle times in the Sydney CBD

What percentage of signals could run faster than 90 seconds?

This table shows what percentage of signals, of this potentially valid sample (i.e. signals in the study area, excluding George St, and excluding signals where TCS site IDs no longer exist in OSM), have a cycle time less than x seconds.

Map of minimum cycle times by status in the study area

Where have signals likely changed in design since the 2017 analysis?

How many signals in the study area could still be accurate?

There is currently no open dataset of post Nov-2017 signal timing data for the study area in the Sydney CBD, so we can not tell which signals have been physically redesigned or reprogrammed.

We can reasonably assume signals have likely been redesigned (but not confirm they haven’t been) when:

  • The TCS site number no longer exists (i.e. the TCS site no longer exists in OpenStreetMap)
  • the intersection is on George St, which has likely been changed as a result of the light rail

This chart visualises different signal groups. These groups attempt to infer which signal sites may still be present since the 2017 data. Of course, the only way to be sure of the current signal sites, their phasing and minimum duration – is to have more recent open data.

Key meaning:

  • “On George St, but still in OSM”: A signal that is located on George St, and TCS site ID matches an existing relation in OpenStreetMap (OSM) – i.e. The TCS site still exists, but we the intersection has likely been redesigned.
  • “Removed from OSM & on George St”: A signal that is located on George St, but the site ID is not in OSM – so likely has been removed (eg. completely removed signal sites)
  • “Site in OSM & not on George St”: TCS site present in OSM, signal not on George Street. This indicates the signal is likely to still be present. Elsewhere in this report “potentially still remaining” or similar terminology refers to this subset.
  • “Site removed from OSM, but not on George St”: TCS site id not in OSM, site not on George St. Signals have likely been removed.

Do mid-block / pedestrian only signals have a lower cycle time than intersections of two roads?

Yes – see the difference in distributions for pedestrian only intersections in the dataset.

Note there are still plenty of intersections of two roads with low minimum cycle times.

Which intersections have a minimum cycle time between 80 & 90 seconds?

Does the number of phases influence the minimum signal cycle time?

In theory, yes – more phases take more time to run.

How much available green time do signals have at 90s with current double cycling?

Note: This is a different distribution to the minimum cycle time chart, as an intersection that is currently double cycled will have a much smaller available green time than 90s minus the minimum cycle time.

Minimum cycle time for intersections to be double cycled

Double cycling means two pedestrian phases can be run in one cycle, reducing the pedestrian delay (think subdividing in musical terms).

Pedestrians are guaranteed to receive a green signal at least once per cycle for some of the Sydney CBD during daylight hours (automatic introduction), however this excludes specific state roads, the locations are which are publicly unknown.

Min time for double cycling is calculated using an unknown method and stored in the source document under DC Threshold (stored under the double_cycle_cycle_length_threshold key in this export).

Map of number of phases per signal

Map of “pedestrian sites” (eg. mid-block pedestrian crossings)

Analysis 2: Graphing qualitative congestion after CBD Cycle Time reductions

By week 8 (26 Feb – 2 Mar) of the signal cycle time reduction study, the only notes for the AM and PM peaks were that the “Network worked well”[4]: 4 . Every single prior week noted perceived (qualitative) traffic or congestion issues in both AM and PM peak periods. This suggests traffic evaporation, or the inverse of induced demand, occurred after 8 weeks.


This may be comparable to the duration following the opening of the Rozelle Interchange. A 2024-02-16 NSW Government press release[46] stated that “average travel time on Victoria Road between Lyons Road at Drummoyne and Anzac Bridge during the morning peak” had dropped from 62 minutes “the first week after Rozelle Interchange opened” (opening 2023-11-26, week after 2023-11-27 – 2023-12-01), to 30 minutes the week before this press release (2024-02-05 to 2024-02-09): a period of 10 weeks. Unfortunately the dashboard has since been hidden from public view – “Access denied” (HTTP 403) as opposed to “Page not found” (HTTP 404).

The difference between signal cycle times reductions and physical reallocation of road space is that cycle times are a continuous (and trivially revertable variable) rather than a (quite literally) set in concrete step function – and if SCATS has the technical software capability, could be changed slowly rather than as an immediate step function. Such adjustments are well known to software engineers as progressive rollouts as a technique to avoid disruption.

But can we graph this change in perceived congestion?

Method

Qualitative congestion data

Unfortunately, this analysis took place before connected-vehicle telematics data was more widely available. ITEM 2 DOC A[47]is titled “Traffic Volume” (same title in the Decision[48]), has a y-axis labelled “Traffic Volume” (seemingly a veh/hr scale), however it only includes data between 2018-01-08 and 2018-01-25 – it doesn’t include data before cycle times were changed. Traffic volumes in these graphs don’t visually appear to significantly increase or decrease, however less than one month of data was included.

The only supplied material in the documents is daily qualitative observation reports, occasionally with photos from traffic cameras or Google Maps congestion colouring.

All input data is LLM OCRed (which may contain errors) of perceived qualitative perceived congestion. This is far from a rigorous analysis.

Scoring

To attempt to graph the change in perceived congestion through the trial from the daily qualitative observation reports, I wrote a simple function to map keywords to a score.

This code has been published as open-source. See the git repo and Observable notebook for futher reproduction, analysis and improvement.

The specific function for evaluating the score (as the critical code) is included in this blog post under the appendix heading below (as well as in the repo).

Results / graphs

AM+PM Summed Arbitrary Perceived Congestion values (daily)

AM+PM Summed Arbitrary Perceived Congestion values (weekly average)

AM, PM, AM+PM Summed Arbitrary Perceived Congestion values

Policy landscape and lack of transparency

Eight months after the change, the City of Sydney Council unanimously resolved to ask the Roads Minister to expand “90 second signal phasing to the whole City of Sydney local government area”[2](motion by Philip Thalis, recent Australian Institute of Architects 2024 Gold Medallist). Clover Moore wrote to the Roads Minister (Melinda Pavey)to request a broader rollout on the 8th of November 2018[9] (as discussed in the media[49][16]), but the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the 19th that “A spokesman for Ms Pavey declined to comment, saying the minister’s office had not yet received the lord mayor’s letter.”[16] I am not aware of a reply to this letter or any TfNSW consideration of a broader rollout in the City of Sydney.

The 2018 Transport for NSW Road Safety Progress report (under the “Pedestrian safety” section) even counted “Six hundred Look Out Before you Step Out pavement vinyls were installed across Sydney”, but didn’t have a single mention of this signal timing change[50]

I am not aware of an official record identifying other 90-second timing areas elsewhere in NSW. Advocates have been told of a few locations in meetings[51]: 2 , though validating this is impossible as data on signal timing is not published[39]. Advocates have resorted to crowdsourcing signal timing, spearheaded by yours truly.[52] Wouldn’t you like to know if intersections on your local high street, or next to your children’s school, or outside your nearest hospital, have been made safer – and if not, why?

Government policy states TfNSW must “document road user space trade-off decisions, providing evidence and reasons”, and to “adhere to these principles ahead of any guidance that seeks to protect or maintain private vehicle level of service.”[23] Signal timing data is not published in NSW. As discussed in my prior analyses, [53][54][37][55][39] access to traffic signal data is prohibitively expensive ($200 per intersection[56]), for seemingly no logical reason. Other states demonstrate that publishing phase/timing data openly is feasible (“There is nothing particularly tricky happening here”[51]: 3  – WA Network Operations Analysis Manager, personal correspondence, 2025-06-06)

Temporal allocation is too important to be hidden from the public, however the December 2023 implementation review of the Road User Space Allocation Policy noted that “…temporal considerations of road space allocation are rarely discussed in the road space allocation conversation.” Finding 4.11 a) was “Our current tools and processes focus on measuring vehicle movements, and benefits such as travel time savings and safety, making it difficult to fairly assess trade-offs”, and 4.11 b) was “There was a reported lack of maturity in tools to trade-off or quantify impacts of changes to road space allocation for non-car modes”[21]

Transparency and accountability are cornerstones of good governance. Without access to data, the public cannot learn whether outcomes are improving. This is government data – taxpayers have already paid for the infrastructure and expertise that generates this data.

Formal requests for open signal phasing data

In April 2025, I wrote to TfNSW on behalf of WalkSydney (co-signed by the Presidents of WalkSydney and Better Streets) requesting publication of signal-timing data.[57] After two[58] responses[59] declining release (with factual errors we addressed in reply[60]), we met with TfNSW officers (who did not have authority to release the data).

Concerns were raised about releasing “raw” data and about complaint risk. We reiterated our view that “transparent access to data assists and is critical for citizens to understand how the Government is implementing its policies eg: TfNSW Movement & Place policy”, and that prioritisation debates should be resolved by policy, not by making changes behind closed doors.

In a subsequent letter to the we requested data for just one weekday[51].

We received a response from the Coordinator-General of Transport for NSW (Howard Collins) that “…Transport for NSW does not publish the SCATS Signal Phasing data you requested and currently has no plans to make this information publicly available.”[40]

This correspondence has been described on the WalkSydney blog.[61]

Current TfNSW initiatives to enhance pedestrian environments and improve signal priority for people walking

This response[40] outlined work-in-progress efforts to improve pedestrian priority at signals, though each have limited public visibility into their progress or data on their outcomes:

  1. Trial site in Manly using video density detection to dynamically extend the Green Pedestrian Symbol,
    • I hope a public outcomes report is published at the conclusion of the trial. No public data of the extension in green interval amid large crowds is currently published. Keep an eye on Better Intersections at the site. I have so far measured an extension of only 3 seconds after a ferry arrived, though this was off-peak.
  2. Pedestrian Protection Mass Action Program to reduce conflicts between turning vehicles and pedestrians at signalised intersections,
    • There is no public information about the timeline of this program, where such signals have been installed so far, where they will be installed, and if green pedestrian intervals have been shortened to retain Level of Service metrics for private vehicles
  3. Ongoing review and optimisation of signal timings to minimise pedestrian wait times where feasible, and
    • There is no public data on when, where, how often, or the outcome of how signal timings are adjusted. There is a widely held scepticism in advocacy circles that many signals are being reviewed. In contrast, Transport for London undertakes “annual timing reviews at 1,200 signal junctions and crossings”, with reducing pedestrian wait times a (measured) objective since 2018 (7 years ago). In 2017, “TfL reduced the wait times for people walking at 200 crossing locations close to schools, hospitals and transport hubs”, published a map of the locations of these intersections, and “over 94 per cent now run a cycle time of less than one minute”, with a maximum wait time of “40 seconds or less”.[62]
  4. Installation of over 30 missing marked pedestrian crossings at signalised intersections in the past two years.
    • This is in line with Movement and Place Policy, however signalised crossing legs are still being removed (Harris St and Allen St, in late 2023[63]), and slip lanes are being expanded (Cleveland and Regent Street[64]).

An Auckland traffic engineer documented in 2022 that SCATS does not natively show pedestrian delay. “data can be viewed in the Event log in SCATS history but it requires exporting and manipulation to get any usable data”.[65]

Community interest and safety context

Frustration with long pedestrian waits is well-documented. The public[55][66][67][68][69][70][71], a wide range of good-governance groups[72][26][73], media[16][74][49] and evidence-based urban policy think tanks[75] are calling for improvements.

Economic analysis indicates that pedestrian signal delay has significant costs. One study estimated that a 10% increase in pedestrian delays in central Melbourne would impose approximately $2.1 billion in additional time costs — about a 6.6% reduction in CBD economic output.[76][77]

The latest road safety data is a disaster: pedestrian deaths are rising 28% year on year[78] (rising four times faster than car drivers) as of 2025-09-23. More people walking are killed in the City of Sydney than any other LGA in NSW.[11]: 6 

In 2018 SMH reported “Transport for NSW previously said the shorter 90-second wait times had kept pedestrians moving and could potentially reduce the risk of jaywalking and pedestrian crashes.”[16] A direct TfNSW spokesperson quote of “Shorter wait times have kept pedestrians moving and could potentially reduce the risk of jaywalking and pedestrian crashes” was published in 2019.[17]

Against the direction of world cities, TfNSW (with direction from Chris Minns[79]) has refused requests from councils to allow reduction of speed limits to 30km/h on local roads. Under the previous executive director Katherine O’Regan, Business Sydney described the benefits in 2020: “At 30 the amenity killing noise finally becomes acceptable for outdoor dining, public space activation and encourages people spurs economic activity by encouraging people to linger longer to enjoy what the Street has to offer.”[80]

The NSW Government 3 Star AusRAP target has been achieved or exceeded on all streets in the City of Sydney, yet people walking and riding are still being killed and injured. More people walking are killed in the City of Sydney than any other LGA in NSW. The City of Sydney is unable to change speed limits – the City of Sydney is advocating for TfNSW to set 40km/h on state roads in the local government area.[11]

Sydney Metro Conditions of Approval relation to traffic signals

Note that Sydney Metro Condition of Approval D12[81] Block 1 – 4 data includes minimum actual cycle times during AM & PM weekday peaks and weekend peaks, however these periods are likely run close to the maximum cycle time. Signal data as part of these reports is not currently public. This requirement was interpreted in the Block 1 Report[82]Advocates should be aware of Sydney Metro West CoA E126 and E124[83] as measuring and preserving the vehicle Level of Service metric at nearby intersections at the expense of other modes (which, if you are a keen observer, is against the terms of the RUSAP[23]), several of which are within the study area (CBD). Both reports contain nominal cycle times supplied for SIDRA modelling at intersections outside metro stations. Pedestrian Movement Performance levels of service output by SIDRA modelling are not discussed or included in the evaluation of intersection performance.

US Automated Signal Performance Metrics (ATSPMs)

A transcript of the Q&A discussion[84] after a presentation hosted by The Eastern Transportation Coalition contains some great insights into the benefit of public traffic signal data and performance metrics based on such data.

The 2022 presentation was titled “Everything You’ve Ever Wanted To Know About ATSPMs: Harnessing The Power Of Automated Signal Performance Metrics For Your Agency”[85].

Q: Jeremy Borden (Alabama DOT): What is the benefit of sharing ATSPMs [Automated Signal Performance Metrics] with the public? Seems like it invites a lot of unnecessary discussions and public signal experts.

A: Mark Taylor (Utah DOT): One of the things that we are always reminded of by our director at UDOT is we are working for the public. Our revenue in government is how much the public trusts us. We try to be as transparent as we can and if there’s any data that’s not personal, we give it to the public.

A: Joanna Bush (Mead and Hunt): It’s a time saver. As a public agency, it’s your responsibility to provide this information if the public asks for it. Our signal engineers would spend a lot of time packaging crash information at signalized intersections. Instead, you can point the public to one place to get information. As Kelly said, in the end, everybody benefits from it. You’re getting free services. Somebody is looking at your efficiencies without you having to spend time analyzing them.

FAQs

Note: many signal-related FAQs are answered on my blog post “Shining a Light on the Traffic Signals of Sydney”.[37]

Why did TfNSW take the initiative to reduce cycle times?

I don’t know! None of the documents reference the light rail installation, so it doesn’t appear to be related to that.

In 2007, the public spaces and public life study by Gehl Architects included that the second highest problem in the pedestrian landscape was “Unacceptable long waiting times at intersections”. Problem #3 was “Push buttons at every intersection” and problem #4 “Unacceptable short periods for crossing streets”[86]

The TfNSW Sydney City Centre Access Strategy (2013)[87] includes “…there will be reduced waiting times for pedestrians at traffic lights”[87]: 3  and a “Key Consideration” is that “Minimising signal cycle times at intersections by simplifying intersections in terms of the turning movement required”: 28 

In 2014, Alex Greenwich moved a motion that the Sydney City Centre Access Strategy is supported, and priority is given to pedestrians, including that he supports pedestrian improvements including “reducing waiting times at traffic lights”.[88]

The TfNSW Movement & Place framework and Road User Space Allocation Policy didn’t exist in late 2017, so there was no specific policy recommending temporal street space is reallocated for pedestrians.

A TfNSW spokesperson stated in a 2018 SMH article that “Shorter wait times have kept pedestrians moving and could potentially reduce the risk of jaywalking and pedestrian crashes”[89].

Transport for NSW’s coordinator-general, Marg Prendergast stated in a 2018 Guardian article that “The wait times were reduced to keep pedestrians moving and help reduce the risk of jaywalking and pedestrian crashes”[74].

In 2020 Gehl Architects included this in their 2020 Public Space & Public Life Study[90]: 142 

The reduction in waiting times has improved pedestrian amenity, however further improvements can be made. … Transport NSW have reduced pedestrian signal cycle time from 110 seconds to 90 seconds enabling more frequent crossing opportunities for pedestrians. Further changes will be explored after light rail becomes operational to ascertain further efficiencies.

Philip Thalis’ 2018 motion in the City of Sydney council mentioned “research by Transport for NSW in 2011 showed that pedestrians wait on average 50 per cent longer than motor vehicles at intersections in the city centre”[2]. Clover Moore’s letter mirrored the requests in this motion.[9]

See the Timeline section below for a brief timeline of events.

Sydney City Centre Capacity Improvement Project

The 2017 briefing note to “To inform both Ministers of a planned evaluation of improved pedestrian” stated:[91]

Since 2014, Transport Coordination and Roads and Maritime have worked to deliver a number of initiatives to improve traffic flow within the core of the Sydney CBD, which has included:

  • Tomorrows Sydney Campaign.
  • Travel Choices (Travel Demand Management).
  • Sydney City Centre Capacity Improvement project – Improve traffic flow on the outer perimeter of the CBD to prioritise the CBD core for pedestrians and public transport.

Over that period, there has been a continued reduction in private vehicle trips entering the CBD core in the morning peak period, which has improved traffic flow in the Sydney CBD and has enabled the proposed reduction in traffic signal cycle times.

The ‘Sydney City Centre Capacity Improvement project[92][93] was particularly contentious. It was explicitly designed to increase road capacity for private vehicles (in the title).

It planned to “achieve equivalent throughput” at east-west signalised intersections, to create additional north-south capacity, with “The primary objective of schemes proposed is to provide additional intersection capacity”, discussing traffic signals only in the context of maintaining private vehicle capacity.[93]: 76 

In a remarkably enlightening statement, it claims “The reduction in demand within the city centre would be negated by the reduction in capacity”[93]: 72  – which forgets to mention the reason for (vehicle) demand reduction. The overwhelming evidence is that reduction in road capacity causes the reduction in demand.[6][94]

How did you find out about this 3-month study?

I found this interesting footnote in an NRMA document[95].

Reducing the waiting time for pedestrians to cross at a signalised intersections can help to reduce the risk of jaywalking and pedestrian crashes, with minimal impact on traffic congestion. From 7 January 2018, Transport for NSW with the Roads and Maritime Services introduced 90 second pedestrian cycle times across the Sydney CBD. Monitoring was undertaken for a three month period to assess impacts across the network and the wait time was tweaked for certain streets. The change in cycle times has reduced waiting times for pedestrians at signals, meaning more frequent safe crossing opportunities.14

Footnote 14 is referenced as “Transport for NSW (2019). Personal correspondence”. The GIPA[a] officer was not able to find this correspondence[48]: 5 

Note: This report unproductively focuses on victim-blaming ‘distracted’ pedestrians for the continued increase in fatalities due to car drivers killing people walking, which is still increasing this year. Research from the NYC Department of Transportation found “little concrete evidence that device-induced distracted walking contributes significantly to pedestrian fatalities and injuries”[96]

Timeline

  • 2006-02: TfL: Factors Influencing Pedestrian Safety Literature Review (> 30 seconds waits hazardous)[12]
  • 2007: Gehl Architects: Public Spaces and Public Life Study, with recomendations for reducing wait times[86]
  • 2011-04: NZ Transport Agency: Reducing pedestrian delay at traffic signals report[13]
  • 2014-03-27: Alex Greenwich: motion to reduce wait times at traffic lights[88]
  • 2014-11: TfNSW: Sydney City Centre Capacity Improvement Plan Review of Environmental Factors[92]
  • 2017-11-24: TfNSW: CBD Pedestrian Times Review[38]
  • 2017-11-29: TfNSW: Map of CBD area for cycle time evaluation[35]
  • 2018-01-07: TfNSW: Sydney CBD cycle times reduced from 110 to 90 seconds[91]
  • 2018-09-17: CoS: Thalis motion to reduce wait times at traffic lights across council area[2]
  • 2018-11-08: Clover Moore, Lord Mayor of Sydney: “Optimising Pedestrian Movement in Central Sydney”[9]
  • 2018-11-19: SMH: Quote: “the minister’s office had not yet received the lord mayor’s letter”[16]
  • 2018: TfNSW: Road Safety Progress Report does not mention cycle time reduction program[50]
  • 2019: SMH: Oslo achieves 0 pedestrian and cyclist road deaths[31]
  • 2020: Gehl Architects: Second City of Sydney Public Space and Public Life Study, with recomendations that more can be done on wait times[90]
  • 2021: TfNSW: RUSAP introduced[21]
  • 2022-12-19: Jake Coppinger: Blog post on “beg buttons”
  • 2023-06-12: Jake Coppinger: Blog post on measuring pedestrian wait times with Better Intersections[54]
  • 2023-07-10: Jake Coppinger: Blog post on “Shining a Light on the Traffic Signals of Sydney”[37]
  • 2023-12: TfNSW: RUSAP Implementation Review Report[21]
  • 2024-06: Updated (strengthened) RUSAP[23]
  • 2024-11: CfS: “Walkable and bikeable streets are good for business” factsheet[19]
  • 2025-08-02: Politico: Helsinki achieves Vision Zero, with 0 traffic fatalities[33]
  • 2025: Josef Whitfield: “Pedestrian Wait-Time Reduction: A Vast Improvement to the Pedestrian Experience on a Shoestring Budget” wins ‘Best Paper at the Conference’ at 2025TPM[18]
  • 2026: TfNSW: Roads Act 1993 Review carried out until 2026[21]

I personally paid $441 to obtain and release these documents. If you find them useful, please let me know!

  • GIPA[a] Correspondence
    • 25T-1151 Ack.pdf[34]
    • 25T-1151 Extending Decision Date of your GIPA Matter.pdf[97]
    • 25T-1151 GIPA Act advance deposit letter 18022025 (redacted).pdf[98]
    • 25T-1151 Decision.pdf[48]
    • IR Ack.pdf[99]
    • IR decision[100]
  • Documents released:
    • ITEM 1 – Briefing Notes: (25T-1151 ITEM 1 – Briefing notes_Redacted.pdf[101]), containing:
      • DOC A – Improving pedestrian accessibility in CBD[102]
      • DOC B – Reducing pedestrian waiting times in the CBD[91]
      • DOC C – DRAFT – Improved pedestrian accessibility in the CBD[3]
    • 25T-1151 ITEM 2 – Statistical reports.pdf[1]
      • Pedestrian surveys and summary
      • CBD pedestrian times & CBD Pedestrian Times Review[38], CBD Traffic Volume [47], Bus travel times comparison[5], single trip / multi days[103] and by scheduled hour band[104] comparisons.
    • 25T-1151 ITEM 2 – Statistical Reports – Brodie BOAM February 2017.xlsm[105]
      • 2017 Bus Opal Assignment Model data
    • 25T-1151 ITEM 2 – Statistical Reports – Brodie BOAM February 2018.xlsx[106]
      • 2018 Bus Opal Assignment Model data
    • ITEM 3 – Presentations: 25T-1151 ITEM 3 – Presentations.pdf[4]
    • ITEM 4 – Email correspondence: 25T-1151 ITEM 4 – Emails_Redacted.pdf[107], containing:
      • BATCH A – Traffic reports discussing 90 second trial
      • BATCH B – 90 second impacts correspondence and attachment
      • BATCH C – 100 second locations
    • ITEM 5 – Email correspondence with NRMA: “Not held”
    • ITEM 6 – Meeting Minutes: “Not held”
    • ITEM 7: Daily Summary Reports: 25T-1151 ITEM 7 – Daily Summary Reports.pdf[108]

Analysis 1 Appendix

Overpass Turbo queries utilised

If you want to find the coordinates of a TCS signal ID, this is the query you need: https://overpass-turbo.eu/s/2bRJ

Thanks very much to the OSM contributors importing traffic_signal site refs and start_date‘s – I couldn’t have done this without you!

OpenStreetMap intersections missing ref values

Most OSM site=traffic_signals relations in the City of Sydney have a ref attribute, so they can be matched against this dataset, but this is not guaranteed.

In such cases, the dataset we plot on maps (as lat and lon come from OSM data) doesn’t necessarily contain all sites from the TfNSW signal audit.

Use this Overpass query to identify and fix these sites missing a ref: https://overpass-turbo.eu/s/289G. Use this Overpass query to identify and fix potential signal sites, that don’t have a site=traffic_signals: https://overpass-turbo.eu/s/289I

I have looked through all the sites in the survey area and they all appear to be complete. Therefore sites missing lat (i.e. an OSM attribute decorated/added in the “join”) have likely been removed from OSM.

Analysis 2 Appendix

Scoring function

I whipped this analysis piece up quickly – it’s not my best work or production code!

The scores themselves are arbitrary; and so is this keyword analysis, but I found it interesting to see the change over the trial.

Further interesting work on this topic could include evaluating descriptors against Austroads Level of Service (LoS) descriptors, however I think it would be more worthwhile to undertake quantitative analysis of the bus data.

See the git repo for the full code. As this is the ‘critical path’ I though I’d also include it here.

export function inferCongestionFromReport(descriptor: string | undefined):
  number | undefined {
  // If no note has been made, consider there to be no congestion.
  if (descriptor === undefined) {
    return 0;
  }
  const text = descriptor.replace(/\n/g, ' ').toLowerCase().trim();
  const ratings: number[] = [];

  const zeroRatingStrings = [
    'no issue',
    'no issues',
    'lighter than usual',
  ];

  const oneRatingStrings = [
    'some delays',
    'no major issues',
    'no major concerns',
    'usual congestion',
    'reasonable performance',
    'traffic significantly lighter',
    'noticeably lighter',
    'significantly lighter than previous',
    'intermittently queuing',
    'not as busy as previous',
  ];
  const twoRatingStrings = [
    'some queuing',
    'queues were observed',
    'some delays experienced',
    'some local congestion',
    'reasonable congestion',
    'generally observed to be clearing the intersections',
    'slightly heavier',
    'heavier than previous weeks',
    'some congestion',
  ];
  const threeRatingStrings = [
    'appeared heavier',
    'noticeably heavier',
    'general traffic was also queued',
    'noticeably heavier than previous',
    'reasonably heavy',
    'generally heavy',
    'heavy congestion although not as bad',
    'heavy but flowing',
  ];

  const fourRatingStrings = [
    'heavy traffic',
    'heavy general traffic',
    'heavy congestion',
    'congestion very heavy',
    'severe congestion',
  ];

  /** Used only if no matches found in the above mappings */
  const ifNoMatchesMappings: { key: string, value: number }[] = [
    { key: 'very heavy', value: 4 },
    { key: 'queuing', value: 2 },
    { key: 'heavy', value: 3 },
    { key: 'congested', value: 1 },
    { key: 'congestion', value: 1 },
    { key: 'busy', value: 1 },
  ];

  if (text === '' || zeroRatingStrings.some(str => text.includes(str))) { ratings.push(0); }
  if (oneRatingStrings.some(str => text.includes(str))) { ratings.push(1); }
  if (twoRatingStrings.some(str => text.includes(str))) { ratings.push(2); }
  if (threeRatingStrings.some(str => text.includes(str))) { ratings.push(3); }
  if (fourRatingStrings.some(str => text.includes(str))) { ratings.push(4); }

  if (ratings.length === 0) {
    for (const { key, value } of ifNoMatchesMappings) {
      if (text.includes(key)) {
        ratings.push(value);
        // Only use the first match - we don't want to double count based on single words that aren't
        // highly specific.
        break;
      }
    }
  }

  if (ratings.length !== 0) {
    if (ratings.length !== 1) {
      // console.warn(`Multiple ratings (${ratings.join(', ')}, using 1st) for: ${descriptor})`);
    }
    return ratings[0];
  }
  if (!descriptorReport[text]) {
    descriptorReport[text] = ratings[0];
  }
  return undefined;
}

I welcome any feedback on this blog post format, or any corrections or constructive criticism, as always!

Drafting in Wikitext

I’ve tried out drafting this blog post in Wikitext as I greatly appreciate Wikipedia-style citations. I’d usually draft in Markdown (for source control) and then export to WordPress for finalising formatting working with images (I’ve previously run my own blog templating engine with a custom srcset generation implementation, it was not fun!).

At first I wrote an HTML transformer (operating on a virtual DOM using JSDOM) to remove some Mediawiki-specific elements. As WordPress strips li id‘s on paste (and strips paragraph elements if they are the only child of a list element) I “rendered” the ordered list elements to actual paragraphs with numbers in them (moving list id‘s to the corresponding paragraph for citation anchor links). I found that WordPress HTML sterilisation still ran on superscript element id‘s, and raw HTML blocks are only available as block elements (forcing in-text citations onto their own lines), so I resorted to using one HTML block for the entire page. I’m still using JSDOM transformation for some minor tweaks, such as removing [ edit | edit source ] from titles. If any Wikipedia AfC reviewers are reading, I’d love a review on this!

I added few tiny CSS/JS snippets for Wikipedia-style citations-on-hover to my WordPress installation, showing a tooltip at the bottom of screen on mobile on click. Please email me if you notice any usability issues on your device/browser in this functionality.

I was initially drafting in the Wikipedia sandbox but I wanted to enable the `$wgRawHtml` setting to enable embedding the iframe tags for the Observable chart embeds (I didn’t want to have to copy them in one-by-one (or copy text around them) for updates). I ended up spinning up a local Mediawiki instance to draft in. Let me know if you’d like a copy of my LocalSettings.php to get this running, along with the minimal list of Template: and Module: pages I had to export/import to get inline citations running.

If anyone has been tinkering on rendering Wikitext citations in the sidebar or has other ideas for better Wikitext citation rendering, I’d love to chat! I’m on Mastodon at @[email protected].

Text fragment hyperlinks

In many cases I’ve hyperlinked with #page=NUMBER or #:~:text=QUOTE affixed so that clicking on the link takes the user to the exact page or paragraph, except when a reference is reused by multiple mentions, in which I use : PAGE_NUM . This functionality is currently only supported in some browsers (https://caniuse.com/url-scroll-to-text-fragment), and is described in this draft W3C Draft Community Group Report. Urls will load normally in all browsers.

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 A request for Government information under the Government Information (Public Access) Act 2009 (GIPA Act)

  1. 1.0 1.1 Transport for NSW (2025-06-04). “25T-1151 – Info for Release – ITEM 2 – Statistical Reports (276 pages)” (PDF).
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 City of Sydney Council (2018-09-17). “City of Sydney Council Minutes – 2018-09-17 – Pedestrian Signals motion (Philip Thalis)” (PDF).
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 Transport for NSW. “Improved pedestrian accessibility in the CBD”, Briefing: Minister for Transport and Infrastructure, Minister for Roads, Maritime and Freight, FOR INFORMATION” (PDF). p. 7.
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Transport for NSW. “25T-1151 – ITEM 3 – Info for Release – Presentation” (PDF).
  5. 5.0 5.1 Transport for NSW. “Doc B – Bus Travel times” (PDF). p. 273.
  6. 6.0 6.1 Cairns, Sally; Hass-Klau, Carmen & Goodwin, Phil (1998). Traffic Impact of Highway Capacity Reductions: Assessment of the Evidence (PDF). London: Landor Publishing. ISBN . Archived from the original (PDF) on 2017-01-17.
  7. Downs, Anthony (July 1962). “The law of peak-hour expressway congestion”. Traffic Quarterly. 16 (3): 393–409. hdl:2027/uc1.$b3477.
  8. Downs, Andrew (1992). Stuck in traffic: Coping with peak-hour traffic congestion. Brookings Institution Press. ISBN .
  9. 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 Clover Moore, Lord Mayor of Sydney (2018-11-08). “Optimising Pedestrian Movement in Central Sydney” (PDF). Letter to The Hon. Melinda Pavey MP, Minister for Roads, Maritime and Freight.
  10. “Road Fatalities for NSW up to and including Monday, 22 September 2025 (Road fatality comparative statistics for the period 01 January to 22 September 2024, 2025 and the average for the same period in 2022, 2023 and 2024)” (PDF). Transport for NSW. p. 3.
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“Should We Let Public Transit Die?” My New Piece in Bloomberg

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It’s been embarrassing to be traveling in Europe during critical weeks when several states I care about — including Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Illinois — are going through major transit funding crises.  But the same crises are coming for much of the US in the next year.  So I wanted to lay out everything I could offer in the way of arguments for why US transit deserves funding, why it’s going to need more, and what arguments we can make to win this difficult battle.  Bloomberg Citylab published it today.

I’m especially proud of the line, “If you drive to the mall, bus riders subsidize you.”  But there’s a lot there and I hope you find it useful.

Again, it’s here.

The post “Should We Let Public Transit Die?” My New Piece in Bloomberg appeared first on Human Transit.

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As Federal Support for On-Farm Solar Declines, Is Community Agrivoltaics the Future?

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Some of the thickest hay in the meadow at Jack’s Solar Garden, in Longmont, Colorado, is on the west side under an elm tree. The tree offers shade, absorbs the brunt of afternoon sun, and keeps more moisture in the ground.

Byron Kominek, who owns the farm, sees similar benefits from the solar panels he has installed on some of the land. “What’s important is to think about the solar array as a tree canopy,” Kominek said. The solar garden includes 3,276 panels that generate 1.2 megawatts of community solar power, enough to power 300 homes.

Through his agrivoltaic system—the dual use of land for solar generation and agriculture—he’s found success growing blackberries, raspberries, asparagus, and more under the panels. While growing these crops, he’s also been able to generate and sell electricity—another boost to farm revenue.

With hotter, drier years ahead, Kominek also thinks having additional shade on farmland will be important for reducing ground temperatures and keeping water in the soil. Both will expand the lifespan of his property.

Through his agrovoltaic system—the dual use of land for solar generation and agriculture—Byron Kominek can grow crops while generating and selling electricity, a boost to farm revenue.

Like most farmers and farm advocates, Kominek is concerned about the loss of productive farmland across the country. He sees large-scale solar energy development that involves wiping out farms entirely as part of that problem, but he believes his farm and many others can demonstrate a different approach.

“It takes a little bit more upfront, but one can consider some of the main points around developing solar arrays that can make it safer, more accessible, and useful for farmers and ranchers for the long run,” Kominek said.

The Biden administration invested in solar through landmark climate legislation, which included additional funds for on-farm solar projects. State policies have also helped spur agrivoltaic growth.

But the Trump administration has taken steps to move federal support away from solar energy. Most recently, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said it would no longer support solar projects that take away viable farmland. That will make it harder for rural businesses and farmers to access grants and loan guarantees that largely go to small-scale solar arrays.

In years past, farmers have gravitated toward these awards because of the energy cost benefits that can help sustain their businesses. Increasingly, though, as federal policies become less stable for solar, states and farm groups are looking to community solar projects to fill the gaps.

Trump’s Far-Reaching Changes to Rural Energy

In August, the USDA shared a press release explaining how the agency would move away from solar through changes to the Rural Energy for America Program (REAP).

First created under a different name in the 2002 Farm Bill, REAP has grown to become the primary program in the farm legislation. While other technologies once dominated, energy efficiency and solar projects are now some of the most popular.

The program currently supports solar projects that range in scale, funded through grants and loan guarantees for agricultural producers or small rural businesses.

Solar arrays can range from small-scale, like task-oriented solar for an irrigation pump, to multi-acre utility-scale projects where electricity generated can go to the grid.

It’s also a low-risk, established technology that farmers and small rural businesses have gravitated toward to stabilize energy prices. Company climate pledges and consumer demand are also pushing low-carbon products, which has similarly pushed farmers to solar.

“The benefit of solar to agriculture producers is that it provides stable energy cost, predictable energy cost, and helps them to reduce their carbon footprint, as markets increasingly demand,” said Andy Olsen, senior policy advocate at the Environmental Law and Policy Center.

“The benefit of solar to agriculture producers is that it provides stable energy cost, predictable energy cost, and helps them to reduce their carbon footprint, as markets increasingly demand.”

A recent USDA memo sent to state Rural Development directors and obtained by Civil Eats provides more insights into how the agency plans to move REAP away from solar. Ground-mounted solar projects larger than 50 kilowatts and installed on “certified cropland” are now ineligible for REAP loan guarantees, it says. Any solar projects that have any component made in a foreign adversary country, like China, would also be ineligible.

Solar projects that fall under these size, location, and component restrictions will also be “disincentivized” for REAP grants.

From 2015 to 2025, 72 percent of REAP projects included solar, according to an analysis by the Environmental Law and Policy Center shared directly with Civil Eats. An estimated 65 percent of these solar projects were larger than 50 kW and could therefore be ineligible for loans, or “docked,” under the new parameters.

While available data does not directly include the size of projects, the center’s analysts came to this conclusion by estimating kilowatts by the cost of the project.

A separate analysis by the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, also shared with Civil Eats, found that relatively few—only about 150—of these projects are larger than 50 kW, mounted on the ground, and classified as an agriculture project. Many existing REAP projects involve solar arrays mounted on land adjacent to buildings or on the edge of property.

But experts point out that nearly every solar array, no matter the size or location, is likely made using components from China.

“This is farmers who are saying, ‘I want to go solar to help my farm,’ or, ‘I’m a rural small business and I want to go solar to help my business,’” said Liz Veazey, state policy campaigns director at Solar United Neighbors. “These people are not going to put a bunch of solar in the middle of their farm and impact their farm. They should be able to do whatever they want with their land.”

Rural businesses and farms look to REAP and solar as a way to stay in business by lowering or controlling their energy costs, Veazey said. These projects can also create jobs that support the broader local, rural economy. REAP loan guarantees specifically can help support utility-scale solar projects that farmers can use to sell electricity.

REAP applications are scored and get “priority points” based on criteria like energy savings, location, committed matching funds and more. These scores are factored into USDA’s selection process.

As the internal USDA memo notes, the new restrictions on solar projects will be factored into this point system. But it’s unclear how severely projects involving more than 50 kW, ground-mounted solar, projects on farmland, and systems made with components produced in China will be docked in this new system.

Depending on how much projects are docked because of the new solar parameters, it could lead to hundreds fewer systems receiving grants, Veazey said. The USDA is expected to reopen REAP applications on October 1, and she expects more information about the point system to be released then.

“Making it harder to get these grants is probably going to reduce applications for solar, [and] potentially push applications to other, maybe less practical technologies,” Veazey said.

The new REAP parameters add to a wave of “uncertainty and chaos” in the program, Veazey said. Earlier this year, USDA briefly froze REAP funding and delayed opening the latest cycle of applications. Veazey said she’s also concerned that cuts to agency staff could make it harder to process all the applications.

“Making it harder to get these grants is probably going to reduce applications for solar, [and] potentially push applications to other, maybe less practical technologies.”

Meanwhile, the federal government has implemented other policies that signal a shift away from solar energy. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) boosted the amount REAP grants could cover to 50 percent. Developers could also stack these grants with other IRA tax credits to further lower the cost of the project.

However, under the Republican-backed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, several IRA credits for clean energy were rolled back. Specifically, the residential solar credit will go away at the end of 2025, and the solar credit for businesses that many farmers or rural businesses could have used becomes more complicated with the introduction of “foreign entity of concern” rules that clean energy developers are still seeking formal guidance on.

Already, getting a REAP grant entails a competitive but complicated application process, particularly for farmers and rural businesses that may not have technical expertise or support. Adding additional parameters, particularly around foreign components, could add red tape to the application process.

The new parameters set by the USDA are “largely killing the REAP program,” said Olsen of the Environmental Law and Policy Center.

States Consider Community Solar

As the federal policy on solar shifts, some states are increasingly exploring community solar programs that can include farms and rural businesses. Community solar arrays are often funded by private investments and subscriber payments. These are generally smaller, requiring about 50 acres, and usually capped at 5 MW of electrical capacity.

So far, 19 states have community solar programs and are exploring agrivoltaics as a way of bringing on low-cost power quickly.

This system allows residents and small businesses to get a credit on their electricity bill that could help offset costs. Farmers who implement these projects can also directly see benefits from lower-cost power or selling electricity.

So far, 19 states have community solar programs and are exploring ways to enhance agrivoltaics, said Liz Perera, senior director of national programs and policy at Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA). These states are trying to bring on low-cost power quickly, and community solar is an economical way of doing this, she continued.

“As the cost of power goes up and electricity on these farms goes up, there’s going to be a lot more interest in solar on these farms,” Perera said. “That’s their way of actually dealing with that increased cost.”

With community solar projects, farmers can lease land to solar developers, earning dollars from lease payments while still harvesting crops on nearby fields, Perera said. These also bring economic benefits for the entire community.

CCSA estimates that 750 mW of community solar nationwide could deliver $2.1 billion in economic impact and create over 14,000 local jobs, based on state-level studies. In Colorado, for example, the community solar program has brought $1.4 billion in private investment while creating jobs largely in rural communities, according to a CCSA report.

Creating Opportunities for Agrivoltaic

Meanwhile, the types of crops that can be grown in an agrivoltaic system are also expanding with further investment and research. Leafy greens, berries, root vegetables, legumes and more can all be grown under the arrays, Perera said.

In September, American Farmland Trust (AFT) announced the Farmers Powering Communities partnership with Reactivate and Edelen Renewables Community Solar. The initiative aims to bring more community-scale solar projects to farmers and rural communities, which AFT believes will protect farmers and farmland while delivering energy savings to rural communities.

These projects can also be a mix of agrivoltaics, rooftop solar, and arrays on the edge of farmland. The coalition aims to connect with partners across the country, but is currently focused on New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, states that have already have community solar and agrivoltaic programs.

Ethan Winter, director of the Smart Solar program at AFT, said these states are more land constrained.

“You’re trying to create some opportunity for the next generation of producers, you’re trying to not accelerate farmland loss, and you’ve got some really ambitious energy targets that are going to continue despite the federal policy headwinds,” Winter said.

For farmers, one of the key barriers to entering the community solar space is a lack of information about the process, said Joel Tatum, senior solar specialist at AFT. This partnership aims to give farmers the background and research to site projects responsibly.

“You’re trying to create some opportunity for the next generation of producers, you’re trying to not accelerate farmland loss, and you’ve got some really ambitious energy targets that are going to continue despite the federal policy headwinds.”

Still, agrivoltaics and incorporating community solar into farms is an emerging concept. Even as innovations, farmer interest, and public awareness of solar on farmland grow, consistent support from the federal or state level are necessary.

Despite the lagging support at the federal level, many groups remain optimistic that community solar and agrivoltaics will persist.

On September 16, community solar developer Lightstar Renewables officially launched its Plains Road Agrivoltaics project in Montgomery, New York. The solar project was tailored to fit within the existing operations at the DiMartino Farm, so hay planting and harvesting can continue around or under the panels. The project is expected to generate enough energy to power 466 homes annually.

Previously, county bylaws had banned solar development on prime farmland. But developers and partners on the project were able to amend these bylaws with specific height restrictions and lot coverage, allowing for agrivoltaics, said Lucy Bullock-Sieger, chief strategy officer at Lightstar.

This shift is happening in other parts of the country as well, as more examples of agrivoltaics show their benefit to farms and communities, she said.

“Agrivoltaics is going to be even more important because the conversation over prime farmland is not going away,” she said. “We have this opportunity to make sure that people understand that agrivoltaics is a viable, commercial, and scalable option for farmers.”

The post As Federal Support for On-Farm Solar Declines, Is Community Agrivoltaics the Future? appeared first on Civil Eats.

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The Violent Culture

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With all the furor about the assassination of Charlie Kirk, and all the rhetoric about how political violence needs to stop, and how we’re a “better people” than that, I thought a little perspective might be helpful.

To begin with, political violence has been, if not common, certainly prevalent in the United
States over the last 175 years. We fought a Civil War over differences in basic political views. Following that, we had well over a century of violence and civil unrest over civil rights, complete with shootings, hangings, and lynchings, not to mention rampant vigilantes, certainly a political issue if ever there was.

On the political level, we’ve had four Presidents assassinated, and four others attacked with lethal force.

Former President Theodore Roosevelt was shot and wounded in 1912 while running for President on the “Bull Moose” ticket. President Gerald Ford was attacked twice in 1975. In one case, the shooter mischambered the pistol and in the second, the shooter fired twice and missed. President Ronald Reagan was shot and came close to dying in 1981, and five others were wounded, several seriously. President Trump has suffered two attempts on his life but only had a minor gash on his ear from the first, while the would-be assassin was caught before he could act in the second attempt.

I don’t know about you, but to me, eight out of forty-seven Presidents seems rather high, and that doesn’t include Presidential candidates.

Robert F. Kennedy was shot and killed while running for President in 1968, and Governor George Wallace was shot and partially paralyzed in 1972 while seeking the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Over 28 recognized U.S. civil rights crusaders have been shot and killed, most notably Martin Luther King and Medgar Evers.

Just recently, two Minesota Democratic lawmakers and their families were targeted: one was killed, and several judges have been attacked as well.

Now we’re having what can only be called an epidemic of school shootings, and we’ve always had a problem with violent domestic abuse, which is why experienced police officers always worry about being summoned for domestic abuse calls.

So all the rhetoric about our being a better people than that is exaggerated. The facts are clear. We haven’t got that good a record when it comes to violence.

One of the key questions is whether, as a nation, we’ll be willing to admit that we have a fairly high level of violence. Or will we continue to deny the facts and cling to the illusion that we’re peace-loving, while we continue to attack and shoot those who don’t agree with us.

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